{"id":79,"date":"2011-11-30T17:56:40","date_gmt":"2011-12-01T01:56:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/?p=79"},"modified":"2014-12-01T13:02:02","modified_gmt":"2014-12-01T21:02:02","slug":"the-laws-of-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/2011\/the-laws-of-thought\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6cd5\u5f8b\u601d\u60f3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff<span class=\"dropcap\">\u5982<\/span>\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u4e0d\u8ba4\u540c\u6211\u5bf9\u903b\u8f91\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3001\u6982\u7387\u8bba\uff0c\u53ca\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u5230\u5947\u70b9\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f5c\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u4e89\u8fa9\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u667a\u529b\u8fd0\u884c\u4e8e\u9b54\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u53f0\u673a\u5668\u53ea\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u4e3a\u4ec1\u6148\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u806a\u660e\u4e86\u561b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u6b32\u671b\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u611a\u884c\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5728\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u786e\u8ba4\u5927\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u903b\u8f91<\/h3>\n<p>\u5e78\u8fd0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u4eba\u5e76\u4e0d\u591a\u3002\u5c31\u8ddf\u6570\u5b66\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u72af\u4e0b\u65e0\u77e5\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4e00\u65e6<em>\u00a0<\/em>\u6709\u4eba\u5411\u6211\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u5bf9\u52fe\u80a1\u5b9a\u7406\uff08Pythagorean theorem\uff09\u7684<em>\u8bba\u8bc1<\/em>\u00a0\u6216\u662f <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Affirming_the_consequent\">\u80af\u5b9a\u540e\u9879<\/a>\u7684\u65e0\u6548\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba4\u540c\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u548c\u903b\u8f91\u662f <em>\u63a8\u65ad\u6027\u7684<\/em>\u00a0\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u573a\u6210\u529f\u4e89\u8bba\u540e\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c<em>\u5fc5\u5b9a<\/em>\u00a0\u9075\u5faa\u4e86\u5b83\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u4f60\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u539f\u7406\uff1a\u6570\u8bba\u3001\u51e0\u4f55\u3001\u8c13\u8bcd\u903b\u8f91\u7b49\u3002 \uff08\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u8131\u79bb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1a\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u00b7\u6000\u5c14\u65af\uff08Andrew Wiles\uff09\u7528\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc7100\u9875\u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Wiles%27_proof_of_Fermat%27s_Last_Theorem\">\u8457\u540d\u8bba\u636e<\/a> \u6765\u8bba\u8bc1\u8d39\u5c14\u9a6c\u6700\u540e\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4ece\u5934\u5230\u5c3e\u5728\u5904\u7406\u6574\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6211\u4f9d\u7136\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5728\u67d0\u5904\u72af\u9519\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<p> 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\u4f46\u662f\u903b\u8f91\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5219\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8c08\u5230\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u800c\u662f\u5173\u4e8e<em>\u6982\u7387<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6982\u7387\u8bba<\/h3>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6253\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u8ba9\u5b69\u5b50\u4fe1\u5949\u5b97\u6559\uff0c\u65e5\u540e\u5f53\u5979\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u5979\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u662f\u96be\u4ee5\u52a8\u6447\u5979\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3002\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8d77\u521d\u5c31\u8ba9\u5979\u4fe1\u5949\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u5f53\u5979\u65e5\u540e\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5b97\u6559\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5979\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u90a3\u5f88\u611a\u6627\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u5148\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u4e0b\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bba\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u6211\u4f1a\u8c08\u5230\u4e0d\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6982\u7387\u5462?\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u771f\u7406\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4f30\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u8fd8\u76f8\u4fe1\u5176\u5b83\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u600e\u6837\uff0c\u5b83\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u7b26\u5408\u5e38\u8bc6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u7b26\u5408\u903b\u8f91\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u5e94\u4e0e\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u6ca1\u6709\u51b2\u7a81\uff08\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u80fd\u7b97\u51fa\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/Jaynes-Probability-Theory-first-two-chapters.pdf\">\u8bb8\u591a<\/a> <a href=\"ftp:\/\/ftp.nada.kth.se\/pub\/documents\/Theory\/Stefan-Arnborg\/arnborgfinal.pdf\">\u4f5c\u5bb6<\/a> \u90fd\u8868\u660e\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7684\u539f\u7406\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u52a0\u4e0a\u903b\u8f91\u800c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff1a<em>\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u53ea\u662f\u5bf9\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u5ef6\u4f38<\/em>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u63a5\u53d7\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u5e76\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5173\u4e8e\u6982\u7387<em>\u662f<\/em>\u4ec0\u4e48\uff08\u6700\u5c0f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e0d\u7ba1\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u771f\u6b63\u4e86\u89e3\u5b83\uff0c\u4f60\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a5\u53d7\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7684\u7406\u7531\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\uff08\u7c97\u7565\u5730\u6765\u8bf4\uff09\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u5e76\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u4f60\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6210\u771f\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u67d0\u4e9b<em>\u6b63\u5728<\/em>\u5229\u7528\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7684\u4eba\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d62\u5149\u4f60\u6240\u6709\u7684\u94b1\u3002\uff08\u9700\u8981\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u8003\u4e00\u4e0b\u6709\u5173 <a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/Easwaran-Bayesianism-I-Introduction-and-arguments-in-favor.pdf\">\u5927\u5f03\u8d4c\uff08Dutch Book\uff09\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba<\/a>\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6e90\u81ea\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u539f\u7406\u6700\u6709\u7528\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u8981\u6570 <a href=\"http:\/\/betterexplained.com\/articles\/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem\/\">\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\uff08Bayes&#8217; Theorem\uff09<\/a> \uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u78b0\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u4f60\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u673a\u7387\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u3002\uff08\u5728<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/from-skepticism-to-technical-rationality\/\">\u7406\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d<\/a>\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u89c1\u662f\u4f9d\u7167\u5b83\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u8fdd\u53cd\u57fa\u672c\u903b\u8f91\u6216\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u800c<em>\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49<\/em>\u7684\u3002\uff09\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5e76\u672a\u4f7f\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u5c31\u8fdd\u53cd\u4e86\u4f5c\u4e3a\u903b\u8f91\u4e4b\u5ef6\u4f38\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5927\u8111\u7684\u8fd0\u8f6c\u901f\u5ea6\u8fc7\u6162\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5168\u5929\u5019\u8fdb\u884c\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8fd0\u7b97\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4f60 <em>\u53ef\u4ee5<\/em>\u8bad\u7ec3\u81ea\u5df1\u7528\u7cbe\u795e\u542f\u53d1\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u8fd1\u4f3c\u4e8e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bd4\u7528\u6211\u4eec\u8bb8\u591a\u9ed8\u8ba4\u8fdb\u5316\u542f\u53d1\u65b9\u5f0f\u8981\u597d\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8fd9\u91cc\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u83b7\u5f97\u4e00\u5957\u5b8c\u6574\u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Concise-Introduction-Logic-11th-ebook\/dp\/B004WJMB7U\/\">\u903b\u8f91<\/a>\u6216<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Probability-Theory-Science-T-Jaynes\/dp\/0521592712\/\">\u6982\u7387\u8bba<\/a>\u53c8\u6216\u662f<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman\/dp\/0374275637\/\">\u7406\u6027\u8bad\u7ec3\u6559\u7a0b\u7684\u5730\u65b9<\/a>\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u60f3\u8981\u5411\u5927\u5bb6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u5230\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7a0d\u540e\u6211\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u6211\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e86\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u5947\u70b9\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u60f3<em>\u81f3\u5c11<\/em>\u4e86\u89e3\u4e00\u4e0b<a href=\"http:\/\/betterexplained.com\/articles\/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem\/\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6709\u5173\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u7b80\u77ed\u6559\u7a0b\u5427<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u8fd8\u6b20\u4f60\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u77ed\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u50cf\u6211\u4e00\u6837\u5728\u5b66\u6821\u6240\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u9891\u7387\u5b66\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6982\u7387\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6982\u7387\u662f\u201c\u4e8b\u60c5\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u53cd\u590d\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u6240\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u9891\u7387\u3002\u201d \u6211\u5c06\u4f1a\u8c08\u5230\u5173\u4e8e\u6b64\u89c2\u70b9\u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/joelvelasco.net\/teaching\/3865\/hajek%20-%20mises%20redux%20redux.pdf\">\u81f3\u5c11\u5341\u4e94\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898<\/a>\u4e2d\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e24\u4e2a\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u5e76\u975e\u6e90\u81ea\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5e76\u975e\u9996\u5c3e\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u7684\u3002\u6309\u7167\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7528\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u8ba1\u7b97\u6982\u7387\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u51fa\u73b0\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u5224\u65ad\u6982\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e<em>\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5<\/em>\uff0c\u8fd8\u57fa\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u957f\u4e32\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6027\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e2a\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u5373\uff1a\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6452\u5f03\u4e86\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u662f\u9519\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b83\u4f1a\u5982\u6b64\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u5462\uff1f\u6839\u636e<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/774\/a_history_of_bayes_theorem\/\">\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66<\/a> \u91cc\u6709\u5173\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u79cd\u79cd\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u600e\u6837\uff1a\u5f53\u6211\u8c08\u5230\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u5f15\u7528\u5230\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u51b3\u7b56\u8bba<\/h3>\n<p>  \u5f53\u8c08\u5230\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5408\u7406\u6027\uff08\u83b7\u5f97\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u89e3\u91ca\u8fc7\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u6709\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u6211\u8fd8\u4e3a\u4f60\u70b9\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u6559\u7a0b\u3002\u4f46\u600e\u4e48\u4f1a\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u5de5\u5177\u5408\u7406\u6027\uff08\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u5b9e\u73b0\u76ee\u6807\uff09\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u5b9a\u5f8b\u5462\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u592a\u8fc7\u4e3b\u89c2\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u624d\u4f1a\u4e0d\u9075\u5faa\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u5219\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>   \u662f\u7684\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u62e5\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u4f46\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u8c08\u53ca\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730<em>\u5b9e\u73b0<\/em>\u00a0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76ee\u6807\u65f6\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u6709\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u4f60\u4ed4\u7ec6\u60f3\u60f3\uff0c\u8fd9\u90fd\u662f\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u4f60\u62e5\u6709\u600e\u6837\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u603b\u4f1a\u7528\u5c3d\u79cd\u79cd\u975e\u5e38\u611a\u8822\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8bd5\u56fe\u53bb\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4e0d\u8be5\u628a\u5934\u57cb\u5728\u6c99\u5806\u91cc\uff0c\u62d2\u7edd<em>\u76ee\u7779<\/em>\u5230\u5e95\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u8fbe\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4e0d\u8be5\u9ebb\u75f9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u8eab\u4f53\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u9ebb\u75f9\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u4f60\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8c08\u5f97\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u70b9\u3002\u51b3\u7b56\u8bba\u662f\u6709\u5173\u57fa\u4e8e\u4f60\u5bf9\u79cd\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u540e\u679c\u7684\u6e34\u671b\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u5462\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u67d0\u4e2a\u79f0\u4e3a<em>\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570<\/em>\u7684\u540d\u8bcd\u6765\u89e3\u7b54\u6709\u5173\u4f60\u7684\u6e34\u6c42\uff0c\u5b83\u6839\u636e\u4f60\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u540e\u679c\u7684\u6e34\u671b\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6765\u7ed9\u5b83\u4eec\u5404\u81ea\u5206\u914d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\uff08\u6216\u79f0\u4f5c\u201c\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8bf4\u660e\u201d\uff09\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4e00\u52fa\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u5bf9\u4f60\u6765\u8bf4\u503c40\u4e2a\u201c\u6548\u7528\u503c\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u5973\u513f\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f60\u5374\u503c-274000\u4e2a\u201c\u6548\u7528\u503c\u201d\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f60\u5bf9\u4e00\u5207\u4e8b\u7269\u5173\u6ce8\u7387\u7684\u6570\u503c\u663e\u793a\u4fbf\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4f60\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4fe1\u5ff5\u53ca\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570\u5408\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u7eb3\u5165\u4f60\u8003\u8651\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u884c\u52a8\u7684<em>\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528<\/em>\u3002\u6309\u7167\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4ea7\u751f\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u673a\u7387\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u884c\u52a8\u6240\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u79cd\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6548\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u6b63\u4e0e\u4f60\u5e74\u5e7c\u7684\u5973\u513f\u6cbf\u7740\u4e00\u6761\u9ad8\u901f\u516c\u8def\u8d70\u3002\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u516c\u8def\u4e0a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u5e97\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u6700\u8fd1\u4f60\u7684\u817f\u53d7\u4e86\u4f24\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5feb\u901f\u5730\u7a7f\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6761\u9ad8\u901f\u516c\u8def\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8ba9\u5973\u513f\u7a7f\u8fc7\u516c\u8def\u53bb\u7ed9\u4f60\u4e70\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\uff0c\u670960%\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5979\u4f1a\u5c06\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u4e70\u56de\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u67095%\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5b69\u5b50\u4f1a\u88ab\u9ad8\u901f\u884c\u9a76\u4e2d\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\u649e\u6b7b\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u662f\u5176\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u540e\u679c\u7684\u673a\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u8ba9\u5973\u513f\u7a7f\u8fc7\u9ad8\u901f\u516c\u8def\u53bb\u4e70\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6b64\u673a\u7387\u4e58\u4ee5\u7b2c\u4e00\u540e\u679c\u7684\u6548\u7528\u503c\uff0c\u5373\uff1a0.6\u00d740 = 24\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c \u6211\u4eec\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u53e6\u4e00\u540e\u679c\u7684\u6548\u7528\u503c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u7684\u673a\u7387\u7684\u4e58\u79ef:24 +(0.05\u00d7-274000)=-13676\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\u5047\u8bbe\u5176\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u540e\u679c\u7684\u6548\u7528\u503c\u53ca\u673a\u7387\u7684\u4e58\u79ef\u4e3a0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8ba9\u4f60\u5973\u513f\u7a7f\u8fc7\u9ad8\u901f\u516c\u8def\u53bb\u4e70\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528\u662f<em>\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u7684<\/em>\uff08\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u5e38\u8bc6\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff09\u3002\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528<em>\u5176\u5b83<\/em> \u53ef\u884c\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982<em>\u65e0\u9700<\/em>\u8ba9\u4f60\u5973\u513f\u7a7f\u8fc7\u9ad8\u901f\u516c\u8def\u4e70\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u53c8\u6216\u662f\uff0c\u5176\u5b83\u5177\u5907<em>\u66f4\u9ad8<\/em>\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4f4d\u7406\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u4eba\u65e8\u5728\u6700\u5927\u5316\u5176\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u80fd\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4eba\u901a\u5e38<em>\u6700\u53ef\u80fd<\/em> \u5f97\u5230\u5176\u6e34\u6c42\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\u53ca\u4e8b\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u4eba\u5e94\u5f53\u6700\u5927\u5316\u5176\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u8bdd\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5168\u9760\u76f4\u89c9\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b83\u662f\u505a\u4e8b\u60c5\u65f6\u7684<em>\u552f\u4e00<\/em>\u7406\u6027\u65b9\u5f0f\u5462\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u8bd5\u7740\u53bb\u5c06\u6700\u574f\u7684\u3001\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u7684\u635f\u5931\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\u5462\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u8bd5\u7740\u6700\u5927\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u6548\u7528\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e4b\u52a0\u6743\u603b\u548c\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u6700\u5927\u5316\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528\u201d\u539f\u5219\u6709\u7406\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u57281940\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u88ab\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\uff08Von 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href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenstern_utility_theorem\">\u7ec6\u8282<\/a>\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u7ed3\u8bba\u5df2\u7ecf\u5982\u6b64\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u88ab\u63a5\u53d7\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u4eba\u4f1a\u6700\u5927\u5316\u5176\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f88\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u7406\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u4eba\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e16\u5b50\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u662f<em>\u75af\u72c2\u7684<\/em>\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u4e0d\u8ba4\u540c\u6211\u5bf9\u903b\u8f91\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3001\u6982\u7387\u8bba\uff0c\u53ca\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u5230\u5947\u70b9\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u6211&hellip;  <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/2011\/the-laws-of-thought\/\">continue reading<\/a> &raquo;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chapter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}