{"id":172,"date":"2011-12-23T14:52:58","date_gmt":"2011-12-23T22:52:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/?p=172"},"modified":"2014-12-06T14:48:37","modified_gmt":"2014-12-06T22:48:37","slug":"plenty-of-room-above-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/2011\/plenty-of-room-above-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Massor av utrymme ovanf\u00f6r oss"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"qtranxs-available-languages-message qtranxs-available-languages-message-sv\">Tyv\u00e4rr \u00e4r denna artikel enbart tillg\u00e4nglig p\u00e5 <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-en\" title=\"English\">English<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-fr\" title=\"Fran\u00e7ais\">Fran\u00e7ais<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-ru\" title=\"\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439\">\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-sk\" title=\"Sloven\u010dina\">Sloven\u010dina<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-zh\" title=\"\u4e2d\u6587\">\u4e2d\u6587<\/a> och <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-it\" title=\"Italiano\">Italiano<\/a>.<\/p><p><span class=\"dropcap\">W<\/span>hy are AIs in movies so often of roughly human-level <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/2011\/playing-taboo-with-intelligence\/\">intelligence<\/a>? One reason is that we almost <em>always<\/em> fail to see non-humans as non-human. We <a href=\"http:\/\/wiki.lesswrong.com\/wiki\/Anthropomorphism\">anthropomorphize<\/a>. That\u2019s why aliens and robots in fiction are <a href=\"http:\/\/tvtropes.org\/pmwiki\/pmwiki.php\/Main\/HumanAliens\">basically just humans<\/a> with big eyes or green skin or some special power. Another reason is that it\u2019s hard for a writer to write characters that are smarter than the writer. How <em>exactly<\/em> would a superintelligent machine solve problem X? I\u2019m not smart enough to know.<\/p>\n<p>The human capacity for <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/2011\/playing-taboo-with-intelligence\/\">efficient cross-domain optimization<\/a> is not a natural plateau for intelligence. It\u2019s a narrow, accidental, temporary marker created by evolution due to things like the slow rate of neuronal firing and how large a skull can fit through a primate\u2019s birth canal. Einstein may <em>seem<\/em> vastly more intelligent than a village idiot, but this difference is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wimp.com\/alienhuman\/\">dwarfed<\/a> by the difference between the village idiot and a mouse.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-175\" title=\"scale_of_intelligence\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/scale_of_intelligence.png\" width=\"650\" height=\"151\" srcset=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/scale_of_intelligence.png 650w, https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/scale_of_intelligence-300x69.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As Vernor Vinge put it:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The best answer to the question, \u201cWill computers ever be as smart as humans?\u201d is probably \u201cYes, but only briefly.\u201d<a id=\"fn1x12-bk\" href=\"#fn1x12\"><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>How could an AI surpass human abilities? Let us count the ways . . .<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Speed<\/em>. Our axons carry signals at seventy-five meters per second or slower. A machine can pass signals along about four million times more quickly.<\/li>\n<li><em>Serial depth<\/em>. The human brain can\u2019t rapidly perform any computation that requires more than one hundred sequential steps; thus, it relies on massively parallel computation.<a id=\"fn2x12-bk\" href=\"#fn2x12\"><sup>2<\/sup><\/a> More is possible when both parallel and deep serial computations can be performed.<\/li>\n<li><em>Computational resources<\/em>. The brain\u2019s size and neuron count are constrained by skull size, metabolism, and other factors. AIs could be built on the scale of buildings or cities or larger. When we can make circuits no smaller, we can just add more of them.<\/li>\n<li><em>Rationality<\/em>. As we explored earlier, human brains do <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/2011\/the-crazy-robots-rebellion\/\">nothing like<\/a> optimal belief formation or goal achievement. Machines can be built from the ground up using (computable approximations of) optimal Bayesian decision networks, and indeed this is already a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Artificial-Intelligence-Modern-Approach-3rd\/dp\/0136042597\/\">leading paradigm<\/a> in artificial agent design.<\/li>\n<li><em>Introspective access\/editability<\/em>. We humans have almost no introspective access to our cognitive algorithms, and cannot easily edit and improve them. Machines can already do this (see <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Eurisko\"><span class=\"small-caps\">eurisko<\/span><\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Metaheuristics-Implementation-Parallel-Distributed-Computing\/dp\/0470278587\/\">metaheuristics<\/a>). A limited hack like the <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Method_of_loci\">method of loci<\/a> greatly improves human memory; machines can do this kind of thing in spades.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And this is only a partial list. Consider how far machines have surpassed our abilities at arithmetic, or how far they will surpass our abilities at <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Computer_chess\">chess<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Autonomous_car\">driving<\/a> in another twenty years. There is no reason in principle why machines could not surpass our abilities at technology design or general reasoning by a similar margin. The human level is a minor pit stop on the way to the highest level of <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/2011\/playing-taboo-with-intelligence\/\">intelligence<\/a> allowed by physics, and there is plenty of room above us.<\/p>\n<p class=\"footnotes\">* * *<\/p>\n<p><small><a id=\"fn1x12\" href=\"#fn1x12-bk\"><sup>1<\/sup><\/a>Vernor Vinge, \u201cSigns of the Singularity,\u201d <em>IEEE Spectrum<\/em>, June 2008, <a class=\"url\" href=\"http:\/\/spectrum.ieee.org\/biomedical\/ethics\/signs-of-the-singularity\">http:\/\/spectrum.ieee.org\/biomedical\/ethics\/signs-of-the-singularity<\/a>.<\/small><\/p>\n<p><small><a id=\"fn2x12\" href=\"#fn2x12-bk\"><sup>2<\/sup><\/a>J. A. Feldman and Dana H. Ballard, \u201cConnectionist Models and Their Properties,\u201d <em>Cognitive Science<\/em> 6 (3 1982): 205\u2013254, <span class=\"textrm\">doi<\/span>:<a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1207\/s15516709cog0603_1\">10.1207\/s15516709cog0603_1<\/a>.<\/small><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tyv\u00e4rr \u00e4r denna artikel enbart tillg\u00e4nglig p\u00e5 English, Fran\u00e7ais, \u0440\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439, Sloven\u010dina, \u4e2d\u6587 och Italiano.hy are AIs in movies so often of roughly human-level intelligence? One reason is that we almost always fail to see non-humans as non-human. We anthropomorphize. That\u2019s&hellip;  <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/2011\/plenty-of-room-above-us\/\">continue reading<\/a> &raquo;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chapter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}